Over the past year tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased substantially, driven in large part by Turkey's assertive foreign policy turn and by the domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime. Lost in all of the discussion of the revitalization of NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a simmering crisis on the alliance's southern flank. Kostas Pikoulas/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images Almost any imaginable conflict, however, would end up including the United States and very likely Japan, and would thus constitute a great power war.Ī Greek tank in a military parade for Greece's Independence Day on March 25, 2018. At the same time, these statements (and unwise stunts such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei) run the risk of triggering Chinese escalation.įortunately, there is good reason to believe that we will have some warning of war as was the case along the Ukrainian border, Chinese preparation for conflict would be glaringly visible to everyone concerned. The willingness of the Biden administration to take risky rhetorical positions on the defense of Taiwan indicates that Washington has real concern over the prospects of a Chinese attack. However, there is little doubt that cross-strait tensions remain significant. Worry about the immediacy of war between Taiwan and China has waned a bit in the past months, in large part because of China's catastrophic covid experience. ![]() Taiwanese troops during an exercise simulating an attempted amphibious landing by Chinese forces in May 2019. ![]() ![]() Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders.
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